Toronto vacancy heads under 3%. Windsor's is rising
Ontario's rental map is splitting in two, and CMHC's own forecast draws the line.
Toronto purpose-built rental vacancy is forecast to fall to 2.9%, the only major Ontario city back under 3%. Toronto two bedroom rents are forecast to rise about 8% between 2026 and 2028, the fastest growth in the province.
The same forecast has vacancy rising across the secondary markets: Hamilton to 4.3%, Windsor to 4.5%, London to 4.7%, Niagara to 4.4%, and Oshawa to 3.7%.
For investors, the market decides the math. Toronto underwriting can lean on appreciation with a tightening rental engine behind it. Secondary market deals have to be priced for the vacancy that is coming, not the vacancy in today's listing.
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