CREA started the year at +5.1%. Now it is -5.2%
CREA has now walked its 2026 forecast back three quarters in a row.
The association expects 444,530 sales this year, down 5.2% from 2025. That is a long way from January, when it forecast growth of 5.1%, and from July, when it expected only a 1.4% decline.
September shows why. Sales fell 2.3% month over month and 7.7% year over year. The national MLS Home Price Index is down 3.4% year over year, and the average sale price sits at $666,538, down 1.6%.
Ontario is carrying a bigger share of the correction, with prices down about 3% across the province, Hamilton and Windsor about 7% lower, and Toronto about 6% lower.
For investors, a market where the forecast keeps falling is a market where sellers negotiate. The leverage belongs to buyers with financing ready and the discipline to close.
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